Looking at what’s happening today there are more and more signs of cracks in the Federal Republic of Germany. The main factor behind this rift is the massive influx of migrants. It can be seen on the political scene, in the demographics and most of all, in the streets. Germany is changing, there’s no doubt about it. The people of Cologne, especially women, got a taste of that change, on the New Year’s Eve celebrations of 2015/2016. Hundreds of women were surrounded by young migrant men, mostly Muslims and sexually assaulted on a scale, which had not been seen before. There were similar attacks in other cities. German streets are no longer safe. White Germans, especially women, have to watch out where they go. The tension between migrants and native Germans is growing and it will continue to grow in the coming years.
A quick look at German demographics (destatis) shows that the number of births in 2015, where the mother had foreign citizenship, was 20.1%. That’s a record. In former West Germany, this number was 21.8% and in the former East Germany, it was only 7.4%.
The number for 2016 is probably even higher. Also, there are immigrants, who have received German citizenship and their children should also be taken into account. A good estimation would be that 30% of German newborns have foreign background. In some cities, this number could very well be over 50%. However, regional differences, are quite large.
The social tensions have caused a lot of Germans to leave the country altogether. Die Welt, one of the largest German newspapers, reported that in the past decade more than 1.5 million Germans, many of them highly educated, had left the country. The face of Germany is going to change in the coming decades, dramatically.
The massive of inlux of over a million illigal migrans in 2015 caused a rift in the CDU/CSU-party, one of the most dominant political parties in Germany. The CSU is the equivalent of the CDU in Bavaria. Back then, Bavarian State Premier Horst Seehofer, threatened Angela Merkel with constitutional action, for opening up Germany’s borders. This had never happened before. The CDU and the CSU could have been considered as one party, that is, up until the migrant crisis.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has seen increasing support mostly due to growing resistance to the illegal immigration. Here too, there are very large regional differences in the way people vote. In the regional elections in 2016, which were held in three states, the AfD received 24.2% in Saxony-Anhalt but only 12.6% in Rhineland-Palatinate, but that’s not the only difference. The Greens received 5.2% in Saxony-Anhalt and a whopping 30.3% Baden-Württemberg. Every serious crisis puts a strain on a countries political and social structure. The migrant crisis isn’t over, far from it. New migrants keep arriving and Germany’s Muslim population is growing rapidly.
Another very important factor is the coming economic crisis, and make no mistake about it, there is an economic crisis on the way. Deutsche Bank’s problems have been widely reported. It looks like the bank will be the next Lehman Brothers. When that bank goes bankcrupt it will pull other banks with it and it will be a repetition of the 2007 crisis, only bigger. When that happens, it will only increase the tension between native Germans and migrants. At the moment the economy is doing fairly well, unemployment is at a low level.
When everybody’s got jobs and money to spend things remain relativly calm. However, when people lose their jobs and the government is forced to cut back on social benefits that’s when bad things start to happen. When the government cuts back on health care, free housing for migrants and other benifts, what’s the reaction going to be? What are the millions of migrants, many of whom feel that they are entitled to having benfits, going to do? Are they going to sit still and say nothing? Very unlikely. Things are going to become dangerous and probably end up in violence. When this happens the rift between the CDU and CSU is going to widen and the CSU might become a separate political party altogether. This would create a gap between Bavaria and the rest of the country. The AfD could very well win in some of the Eastern states and perhaps join the CSU in a coalition.
A civil conflict is entirely possible, like in the 1930’s. It may be too late to turn things around at this point. With a foreign population exceeding 50% in some areas, which does not share the same values as Germans do, may very well lead to immigrants forming their own political parties and their own local authorities. We’ve seen this happen to some extent already, no-go zones ruled by self-proclaimed Sharia-gangs are popping up in many parts of Europe.
If current migration-trends continue Germany will sink into a civil conflict. However, it’s unlikely that all of Germany will go down. The parts of Germany that have few migrants and that have a stronger sense of identity, mainly the Eastern states, that used to make up Prussia, are not going to be in such a serious situation. They may want to go their own way, separating from the rest of Germany.
In the future we may see new states, a new Prussian and Bavarian state. The rest of Germany might splinter up into smaller states, just as was the case before the unification of Germany. Historically, Germany used to be devided into many smaller states, so the breakup of Germany is not impossible. There is a historical precedence for this. Of course, this is just one possible scenario, it doesn’t have to happen. There is still a chance that Germans will turn things around. However, if Angela Merkel or Martin Schultz from the SPD (they are basically the same) wins the next election in September this year, that chance will be significantly smaller.